About & disclaimer

NextSmash MMA estimates who each ranked fighter is most likely to fight next, and shows the reasons and sources behind every number.

Disclaimer

All percentages are model estimates, not facts, predictions of fight outcomes, or betting advice.
NextSmash MMA is an independent fan project. It is not affiliated with, endorsed by or sponsored by the UFC, Zuffa or TKO. "UFC" and event names are used only to describe real events.
We use no UFC logos and no fighter or event photos. Fighters are shown by initials.
No betting links, no affiliate links, no paid entry, no prizes. The fan vote and "Follow" are stored only in your browser (localStorage) and never leave your device. Email alerts are opt-in. See Privacy.
Rankings and records are entered by hand from UFC.com and checked after each card. We don't scrape. If you spot an error, tell us at @nextsmashmma.

Methodology (v3)

We score each realistic opponent from 0 to 1 on the factors below, using cited reporting. The score is squared to sharpen the gaps, then turned into a share. A "field / other" share is kept back for surprises.

Reported talks	0.25
Fighter leak	0.10
Title picture	0.15
Availability	0.15
Rank proximity	0.05
Career stage	0.05
Location home card	0.10
Riser bonus	0.05
Momentum	0.05
Freshness	0.05
Same country	−0.10

Officially booked fight = 90–92% (withdrawal risk only).
A reported but unconfirmed booking gets a fixed share (Oliveira–Lopes 70%).
Pair consistency: P(A next fights B) = P(B next fights A) for fighters who both have pages.
Fighter leak: a fighter publicly saying a fight is agreed scores 0.6–0.8 until the UFC confirms or denies it.
Location/home-card: a confirmed event in a fighter's home country with an open card adds up to 0.10.
Riser bonus: rising contenders just outside the top 5 (Salkilld, Parnasse, Nolan) get credit for fast-tracked bookings.
Probability ∝ score², with a 'field/other' share reserved for unlisted opponents.
Career stage: a fighter on a losing streak steps back. Two straight losses push title-eliminator opponents down and opponents ranked about 8–15 up; three or more add a 'retires/steps away' share. Rank proximity drops to 0.05 to make room. Applied to welterweight from v3; lightweight odds are unchanged from v2 until their next review.
Same-country penalty (−0.10): the UFC usually avoids matching two fighters of the same nationality, above all on their home card, where it wants locals facing foreign opponents. Softer (about −0.05) for lower-ranked or prelim pairings, because it does happen (Salkilld vs Mullarkey, UFC 325 Sydney). Officially booked or reported fights keep their fixed shares. Exempt: United States and Brazil (huge rosters, where same-country fights are routine), in every division. We never suggest Salkilld vs Nolan.
Model-only picks (new divisions, 1 Oct 2026): where nothing is booked, reported or publicly called for, fighters ranked within 4 places of each other and both unbooked are paired through one shared, symmetric matrix (A's % for B always equals B's % for A). Weights: closer rank, momentum (both won last), riser, home card (Sydney wants AU/NZ vs foreign), minus same-country (US/Brazil exempt), immediate rematches and 12+ months out. Labelled 'Model pick' and confidence Low.
Unofficial ranks 16–30 (2 Oct 2026): a transparent NextSmash score, not a UFC ranking. Picks inside the 16–30 band use the same symmetric pair matrix as the other model-only picks (unofficial ranks within 4 places, both unbooked) and are confidence Low unless booked (High) or reported/called out (Medium).

What the factors mean

Reported talks: Credible reporting that the UFC is putting a fight together.
Fighter leak: A fighter publicly saying a fight is agreed or "locked in" (Salkilld–Pimblett, Prates–Makhachev).
Title picture: How directly the fight affects the belt.
Availability: Injuries, layoffs, retirement talk, and whether both men are free on the same timeline.
Rank proximity: How close the two fighters are in the rankings.
Career stage New in v3: A losing streak means a step back. After two straight losses, title eliminators score lower and opponents ranked about 8–15 score higher. Three or more losses add a "retires/steps away" share. Active on welterweight now; lightweight odds get it at their next review.
Same-country penalty New in v3: A negative factor (−0.10). The UFC usually avoids matching two fighters from the same country, especially on their home card, where it wants locals facing foreign opponents. It's softer (about −0.05) for lower-ranked or prelim pairings, because it does sometimes happen (Salkilld vs Mullarkey at UFC 325 Sydney). Booked or reported fights keep their fixed shares. Exempt: United States and Brazil (in every division). Their rosters are so large that same-country fights are routine. We never suggest Salkilld vs Nolan.
Location / home card: A confirmed event in the fighter's home country with an open card (UFC Sydney, 7 Feb 2027, for Australians and New Zealanders).
Riser bonus: Fast-rising contenders just outside the top 5, who get fast-tracked bookings (Salkilld, Medić, Malott).
Momentum, freshness: Win streaks, and a penalty for rematches that already happened recently.

Unofficial ranks 16–30

UFC.com publishes only a top 15. Below that, every rank on this site is unofficial: our own transparent score, not a UFC ranking. Each division's eligible fighters are scored 0–100 and sorted:

Score = 30 × Meta + 25 × Last 3 + 20 × Ranked wins + 15 × Win % + 10 × Activity

Meta: (16 − Meta rank) ÷ 15 if the fighter is on UFC.com's algorithmic Meta top 15 but not the Media top 15, otherwise 0.
Last 3: average of the last three UFC results (win 1, draw or no contest 0.5, loss 0). Missing fights count 0.5, so a one-fight newcomer can't max it out.
Ranked wins: wins since 1 Apr 2025 over a fighter currently in any UFC.com Media top 15 or a champion, capped at 2.
Win %: pro record wins ÷ (wins + losses), scaled so 60% = 0 and 95%+ = 1.
Activity: 1 if the last UFC fight was within 12 months, 0.5 within 18 months.

Eligible: the last UFC bout was in this weight class, UFC.com lists the fighter as Active (or they're booked on a UFC.com card), they fought within 18 months or are booked, and they aren't already in the Media top 15. Ties go to more UFC wins since April 2025. Results come from ESPN's UFC results feed (Jul 2024 onwards); records and status come from UFC.com. Checked 2 Oct 2026. Picks inside the 16–30 band are mostly model-only (confidence Low) unless a fight is booked or reported.

Coverage and countries

We cover the champion and the UFC.com Media Panel top 15 in all eleven divisions UFC.com ranks (eight men's, three women's), plus unofficial ranks 16–30 (see above) and flagged risers. Women's featherweight has no UFC.com ranking, so it isn't covered. In the newer divisions, picks with nothing booked, reported or publicly called for are labelled Model only. They come from one shared pair matrix, so A's % for B always equals B's % for A. Each fighter's country is the citizenship on their ESPN profile, checked against the place of birth on UFC.com. Where the two differ (for example Leon Edwards, born in Jamaica and representing England), we use the ESPN citizenship. Browse by country.

Photo credits

The home-page "What's next" cards use cropped, blurred stock photos (no fighters are identified, and no promotion logos are shown): BYB BYB on Pexels; Gabriel F. Rodrigues on Unsplash; The U.S. Army via Wikimedia Commons (public domain); Pavel Danilyuk on Pexels (two photos). Pexels and Unsplash photos are used under their free licences, which don't require credit; we give it anyway.

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Updates

A daily news scan proposes changes. A human approves each one before it goes live, and every page shows its own "last updated" date and source list.