Who will Justin Gaethje 🇺🇸 fight next?
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Not confirmed: no opponent or date has been officially announced as of 1 Oct 2026. The percentages below are estimates.
Last fight: W vs Ilia Topuria (TKO (corner stoppage)), UFC Freedom 250, 14 Jun 2026
Most likely Arman Tsarukyan (40%), no event announced yet. Next: Ilia Topuria (25%), retires or vacates first (25%).
Updated (UAE time) · Percentages are NextSmash model estimates, not facts or betting advice.
Confirmed Official
Nothing confirmed yet. No opponent, event or date has been officially announced for Justin Gaethje as of 1 Oct 2026.
Latest status: Champion. Out for the rest of 2026 with knee and hand injuries, and undecided on retiring.
Forecast: likely opponents Model estimate
Each percentage is the estimated chance of being his next opponent. These are not chances of winning.
- 40%chance next opponentGaethje said himself that if and when he defends, Tsarukyan will be the opponent.
- 25%chance next opponentThe promoter wants the rematch and Gaethje says 'of course I would'. Immediate rematches score lower on freshness.
- Retires or vacates first25%chance next opponentGaethje frames his options as 'Tsarukyan or retirement'.
Field / other: 10%. This covers everyone not listed above.
- Likely event
- No event before 2027 (injured). Nothing announced.
- Last fight
- Win vs Ilia Topuria · KO/TKO R4 5:00 · UFC Freedom 250 · 14 Jun 2026
- Confidence
- Medium (High = officially booked · Medium = reported or a fighter's own claim · Low = model only)
- Last updated
- (UAE time)
What changed?
- MMA Junkie: Gaethje timeline, Tsarukyan · source
- Upfront MMA: Gaethje open to Topuria rematch · source
Only dated items with a source are listed: news reports used for the estimate, plus changes to our logged estimates.
Fight history Pro record 28-5-0
| Result | Opponent | Method | Rd | Time | Event | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W | Ilia Topuria 🇬🇪 | TKO (corner stoppage) · R4, 5:00 | 4 | 5:00 | UFC Freedom 250 | |
| W | Paddy Pimblett 🏴 | Decision (unanimous) · R5, 5:00 | 5 | 5:00 | UFC 324 | |
| W | Rafael Fiziev 🇦🇿 | Decision (unanimous) · R3, 5:00 | 3 | 5:00 | UFC 313 | |
| L | Max Holloway 🇺🇸 | KO (punch) · R5, 4:59 | 5 | 4:59 | UFC 300 | |
| W | Dustin Poirier | KO (head kick) · R2, 1:00 | 2 | 1:00 | UFC 291 | |
| W | Rafael Fiziev 🇦🇿 | Decision (majority) · R3, 5:00 | 3 | 5:00 | UFC 286 | |
| L | Charles Oliveira 🇧🇷 | Submission (rear-naked choke) · R1, 3:22 | 1 | 3:22 | UFC 274 | |
| W | Michael Chandler | Decision (unanimous) · R3, 5:00 | 3 | 5:00 | UFC 268 | |
| L | Khabib Nurmagomedov | Technical Submission (triangle choke) · R2, 1:34 | 2 | 1:34 | UFC 254 | |
| W | Tony Ferguson | TKO (punch) · R5, 3:39 | 5 | 3:39 | UFC 249 | |
| W | Donald Cerrone | TKO (punches) · R1, 4:18 | 1 | 4:18 | UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Gaethje | |
| W | Edson Barboza | KO (punch) · R1, 2:30 | 1 | 2:30 | UFC on ESPN: Barboza vs. Gaethje | |
| W | James Vick | KO (punches) · R1, 1:27 | 1 | 1:27 | UFC Fight Night: Gaethje vs. Vick | |
| L | Dustin Poirier | TKO (punches) · R4, 0:33 | 4 | 0:33 | UFC on Fox: Poirier vs. Gaethje | |
| L | Eddie Alvarez | KO (knee) · R3, 3:59 | 3 | 3:59 | UFC 218 |
Show all 33 fights
| Result | Opponent | Method | Rd | Time | Event | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W | Michael Johnson | TKO (punches and knees) · R2, 4:48 | 2 | 4:48 | The Ultimate Fighter: Redemption Finale | |
| W | Luiz Firmino | TKO (doctor stoppage) · R3, 5:00 | 3 | 5:00 | WSOF 34 | |
| W | Brian Foster | TKO (leg kicks) · R1, 1:43 | 1 | 1:43 | WSOF 29 | |
| W | Luis Palomino | TKO (punches) · R2, 4:30 | 2 | 4:30 | WSOF 23 | |
| W | Luis Palomino | TKO (leg kicks and punches) · R3, 3:57 | 3 | 3:57 | WSOF 19 | |
| W | Melvin Guillard | Decision (split) · R3, 5:00 | 3 | 5:00 | WSOF 15 | |
| W | Nick Newell | TKO (punches) · R2, 3:09 | 2 | 3:09 | WSOF 11 | |
| W | Richard Patishnock | TKO (punches and elbows) · R1, 1:09 | 1 | 1:09 | WSOF 8 | |
| W | Dan Lauzon | KO (punches) · R2, 1:40 | 2 | 1:40 | WSOF 6 | |
| W | Brian Cobb | TKO (leg kicks) · R3, 2:19 | 3 | 2:19 | WSOF 3 | |
| W | Gesias Cavalcante | TKO (doctor stoppage) · R1, 2:27 | 1 | 2:27 | WSOF 2 | |
| W | Adrian Valdez | TKO (punches) · R2, 0:19 | 2 | 0:19 | Rage in the Cage 164 | |
| W | Drew Fickett | KO (punch) · R1, 0:12 | 1 | 0:12 | Rage in the Cage 163 | |
| W | Sam Young | Submission (rear-naked choke) · R2, 1:58 | 2 | 1:58 | Rage in the Cage 162 | |
| W | Marcus Edwards | Decision (unanimous) · R3, 5:00 | 3 | 5:00 | Ring of Fire 43 | |
| W | Donnie Bell | TKO (punches) · R2, 2:57 | 2 | 2:57 | Ring of Fire 42 | |
| W | Joe Kelso | TKO (punches) · R1, 4:32 | 1 | 4:32 | Bring the Thunder MMA 2 | |
| W | Kevin Croom | KO (slam) · R1, 1:01 | 1 | 1:01 | Ring of Fire 41 |
Professional MMA bouts only, newest first. Source: Wikipedia (checked 2 Oct 2026).
Justin Gaethje: frequently asked questions
When is Justin Gaethje's next fight?
No fight is officially booked as of 1 Oct 2026. Our outlook: No event before 2027 (injured). Nothing announced.
Who did Justin Gaethje fight last?
Justin Gaethje beat Ilia Topuria at UFC Freedom 250 on 14 Jun 2026 (KO/TKO R4 5:00).
Who is Justin Gaethje likely to fight next?
NextSmash model estimate: Arman Tsarukyan (40%), Ilia Topuria (25%), retires or vacates first (25%). Updated 1 Oct 2026. These are estimates, not facts or betting advice.
What is Justin Gaethje's record?
28-5-0 (wins-losses-draws) in professional MMA, as listed on UFC.com (checked 1 Oct 2026).
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Other lightweight fighters
- Ilia Topuria #1 · next: Justin Gaethje 25%
- Arman Tsarukyan #2 · next: Justin Gaethje 40%
- Charles Oliveira #3 · next: Diego Lopes 70%
- Max Holloway #4 · next: Conor McGregor 25%
- Paddy Pimblett #5 · next: Quillan Salkilld 50%
More: Lightweight rankings and next fights · United States UFC fighters
Sources
- UFC.com athlete profile (record, rank) · 1 Oct 2026
- UFC.com rankings (Media Panel + Meta boards) · 1 Oct 2026
- MMA Junkie: Gaethje timeline, Tsarukyan · 23 Sep 2026
- Upfront MMA: Gaethje says Tsarukyan or retirement
- Upfront MMA: Gaethje open to Topuria rematch · 17 Sep 2026
- Punch Junkie: Anik says rematch under 'strong consideration'
- ESPN fight history (Topuria vs Gaethje result) · 1 Oct 2026
- ESPN fighter profile (country) · 1 Oct 2026
Percentages are NextSmash model estimates from the factors shown above (see methodology). They are not facts, and not betting advice. Records and ranks come from UFC.com; country from ESPN. Checked 1 Oct 2026.